War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".