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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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